Just because you’ve never seen a train on a stretch of tracks doesn’t mean there never will be one. Yet that is how many officers behave when it comes to low probability / high consequence events. Even though we haven’t seen one in a while, inevitably they will occur and we need to prepare for them.
What are they?
Frequent events and activities are high probability / low consequence (HP/LC). They happen often and they are not catastrophic in nature. For officers these are calls like shoplifters, traffic stops, and domestic disturbances. They can also be common activities such as handcuffing, writing citations, or interviews and interrogations.
The other end of the spectrum is low probability / high consequence (LP/HC) events and activities. They don’t happen often and can be life changing for many involved. These are calls like rolling up on murders or armed robberies in progress. Among officer actions they include deadly force incidents, forcing entry into a building, or vehicle pursuits.
Where do we focus?
Because the consequences of LP/HC events can be so drastic, conventional wisdom would dictate that officers would put a great deal of effort into preparing for them. However, as officers we tend to focus more on the HP/LC events because they occur so often. There are numerous examples of officers that assume the burglar alarm they are responding to is false because they have answered so many false alarms and few if any legitimate ones. They anticipate the false alarm rather than prepare to encounter a burglar.
All officers go through a learning curve that begins with HP/LC calls. Field training officers start their new rookies off on simple traffic stops and minor disturbances then progressively add more difficult calls. Many officers will graduate field training without performing many if any LP/HC calls. They just don’t occur often enough in most agencies.
After getting cut loose on their own, learning how to effectively handle LP/HC calls and activities becomes dependent upon each individual officer’s own initiative. Many officers are self disciplined and activitely seek out information on LP/HC topics and model themselves after seasoned officers that show ability in those areas. Others avoid situations that might develop into LP/HC events, tell themselves that those situations will never happen to them, and justify it to themselves with their statistical logic, “It haven’t needed it yet.”
Read Chuck Remsberg’s book, Blood Lessons, and you will learn about officers that have gone through LP/HC events. At the end of each story an officer talks about how some type of training either saved their life or how they wished they had prepared better for LP/HC events.
What should we do?
Good police officers balance their preparation and training between both HP/LC and LP/HC. As officers master the HP/LC events they should focus much more on preparing for LP/HC events. The mark of a seasoned and experienced officer is one who can move smoothly through LP/HC events. It is the dividing line between an average officer and an excellent officer.
The best way to prepare for LP/HC events is to attend hands on training offered by police associations like the National Tactical Officer’s Association or established companies like Tony Blauer.
The next best way to prepare is attending officer survival seminar training like the Street Survival Seminar. The major obstacle to both of these solutions is expense.
For a low cost solution, take advantage of police resources like Police One, Police Link, Law Officer, and police blogs like The Things Worth Believing In, LESC, Trigger Pull Tactical, and Spartan Cops. They highlight and provide tactics for LP/HC events at the individual, team, and departmental levels.
My final thoughts and your two cents
If you want to be effective as a police officer you can’t let the repetitive nature of HP/LC situations and activities lull you into a false picture of the world you work in.
If you mishandle a shoplifting case, it is not a big deal. If you screw up a murder, it will haunt you, the police department, and the family of the victim. If you do a bad job on an interview, life will go on. If you do a bad job using force, it can have immense consequences. For proof, just look at Officer Mehserle of the BART police department.
What are your thoughts on preparing for LP/HC events and activities? What resources would you recommend? Put links to them in the comments.
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Low Probability / High Consequence: Are We Properly Focused? By Scott.
Another great post, a SAVE here in Ohio for future reference and probably a hand-out flyer for our academy.
Unfortunately, many LE agencies do plan only for the things we most commonly encounter that have merely LOW-consequences. Officers that wish to WIN HIGH-consequence/Low probability encounters need to prepare their minds and focus on “What if”? for WORST CASE encounters, especially if their agency does NOT include them in frequent training.
For example, if the agency range training does not include live or simulated sidearm response scenarios from a seated position, (cruiser/lunch table), it is up to the officer to practice on his own with a safe training pistol replica, or his own UNLOADED duty pistol.
Of course, readiness for a High-consequence encounter is not all equipment or tactics. Everything starts in the brain and involves the OODA Loop. If we fail to be observant or perceptive, by default, we yield the KEY advantage of surprise to any potential adversaries.
If too many of our mental eggs are invested in a single, (or multiple) basket of distractions , (”What’s Important Now”: Cellphone/Radio; Texting/Mobile Data Terminal/Laptops; Attractive opposite sex; Paperwork; AM/FM Sports station; Etc.), we become easy prey for rogue human predators.
We wish there was no example to point to the validity of the deadly error of being “Mentally Absent With Out Leave” MAWOL(C), but unfortunately and tragically, we have 4 dead Lakewood WA officers. This assassination ambush would probably still had some sort of fatal outcome anyway, but add the disadvantage of MAWOL(C) (pronounced “May-wall”), and we have a score of “bad guy 4 to police 0″.
Early reports indicate that two officers were shot dead in their seats, one stood and was shot dead, and the 4th officer had a close quarters battle to the door where he succumbed to his head wound. The COWARDLY Ex-con Muslim hate crime killer was wounded in the stomach, (possibly by the 4th officer).
Early reports say that the uniformed (?) officers were not on duty yet, were preparing for dayshift on their laptops in a coffee shop outside their city. Unfortunately, the “OFF-DUTY” mindset has been fatal before. When we are in uniform, there should be a presumption that we are a “Target” to
some criminals.
“What’s Important Now”? Keep your mind in the game and don’t get caught MAWOL! (C)
SEALE Academy, Bedford Ohio
Outstanding post and comment. this quote comes to mind:
“Invest in preparedness, not prediction…I will never get to know the unknown since, by definition, it is unknown. However, I can always guess how it might affect me, and I should base my decisions around that…you always control what you do, so make this your end.” ~Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan; The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Stay Oriented!
Fred
“If you mishandle a shoplifting case, it is not a big deal. If you screw up a murder, it will haunt you, the police department, and the family of the victim. If you do a bad job on an interview, life will go on. If you do a bad job using force, it can have immense consequences.”
Words of wisdom. Thinking about posting that up around the PD.
Thank you Ron, Fred, and Tom. Excellent points from each of you.
Fred, I haven’t read the Black Swan but it is on my reading list. Your quote from it seems very relevant.
Scott,
I think a great way to stay ready for LP/HC events is to compete in events that replicate them, and teach “use of force” topics frequently. To prepare myself for a shoot out, I sign up for an IDPA match. If I train for one match a month, I stay tuned up. To prepare for a fight , I sign up for a boxing match( Battle of the Badges, etc.). Then I train my butt off. This helps me to actually train ( not talk or think about it) so my individual tactics and skills are sharp. If you don’t have a specific goal it is difficult to stay motivated year after year.
I realize that ring sports and shooting matches are not combat. They have rules , ref’s and time limits. This training will give you a great base level of skill.I think that a high level IDPA shooter / undefeated boxer would be handful for most people. You should incorporate styles like Krav Maga, do air soft F.O.F. training and visualization techniques to round out your skills.
I also recommend competing in events like triathlon or adventure races.
You will be in shape for you next foot chase/ fight. It will make you mentally tough and it is fun (if you love pain).
I recommend teaching others as a great way to stay current and tactically sound. Teaching firearms, arrest and control, building search, etc. will force you to learn the material and ingrain it into your mind.
I like your sight. I hope my two cents can help some one stay motivated.
R/S
Steve
Steve,
I think you are right. Competitions are a useful method to maintain technical skill levels, fitness level, combat mindset, and speed of your decision making during the heat of the battle. As you point out, there is still a gap between real combat and training or competitions but the gap is much narrower than doing nothing at all.
Thanks for posting great practical advice about preparing for LP/HC events.
Scott